Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe79a…4c77 crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$68 (+0%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate93%112W / 8L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$47
crypto 31% +$18
other 1% +$4
sports 0% −$8
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 120 +2.5% -7.2% 93% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 22% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 11% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 8% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses112 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage595d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? May 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 11 $155 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? Apr 27 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 05 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $172 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? Mar 26 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $164 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $172 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 12 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? Mar 06 $168 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 03 $4 +$3 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 14 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $159 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 31? Feb 01 $156 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $152 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $118 9d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $160 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 42d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 46d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $155 53d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $150 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $160 67d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $3 67d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 67d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $6 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $171 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $172 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $172 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $170 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $168 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $170 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $164 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $169 94d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 94d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $4 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $172 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $172 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.18 · official $129.18 (match) · 525 history records