Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe79d…e34a politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$2
politics 24% −$3
economics 19% −$1
other 15% −$2
crypto 13% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -5.6% -14.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage164d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $383 +$3 +1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Jan 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Jan 14 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $444 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 4h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 7h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 10h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 14h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 14h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 14h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 15h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 17h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 17h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 17h
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $7 140d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $6 140d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $6 140d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $7 140d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $12 146d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL No 99¢ $12 146d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $12 146d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $12 146d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $200 153d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $299 153d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $299 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.71 · official $318.71 (match) · 69 history records