Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe7a0…aee2 sports 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,084 (-6%) realized −$2,982 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%136W / 102L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$446est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$471
14 days+$481
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,786
other 17% −$934
crypto 1% −$348
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.5% -2.7% 48% 48% +0.2%
≤30d 39 -3.8% -12.9% 46% 46% -8.4%
≤90d 196 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 53% -15.6%
all 238 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 51% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 51% -17.8%
10% -23.2% 42% -25.7%
15% -30.7% 32% -32.9%
20% -37.5% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$132 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$898
Realized−$2,982
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses136 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$446
Open positions6
Markets (closed)238 / 244
History coverage114d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $300 $247 −$53 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-19%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$92 +45%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$15 -48%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$25 -80%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$145 +282%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +199%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $712 −$700 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$321 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $204 +$440 +216%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $103 −$101 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 +$26 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 +$213 +83%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $255 −$194 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $256 +$404 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $605 +$252 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $336 +$127 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,287 +$564 +44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $164 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $154 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,182 −$85 -7%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $253 −$250 -99%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $201 +$49 +24%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $253 +$166 +66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $265 +$210 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,114 +$40 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $448 −$440 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $23 −$23 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $13 +$10 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $160 −$157 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $168 −$95 -57%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $341 −$150 -44%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $61 +$120 +197%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $355 +$61 +17%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $364 −$160 -44%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $204 +$85 +42%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $101 +$28 +28%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $71 +$38 +54%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $82 +$14 +18%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $122 +$44 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $295 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 40¢ $196 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $308 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $31 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $142 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $305 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $626 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.28 · official $898.28 (match) · 722 history records