Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7a2…bab3 crypto 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%83W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$25
14 days−$26
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$55
other 5% −$5
sports 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 28% -13.4%
≤30d 141 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 33% -12.7%
≤90d 145 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 32% -12.6%
all 145 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 32% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 32% -12.6%
10% -18.4% 20% -21.0%
15% -26.3% 14% -28.6%
20% -33.5% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses83 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage68d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.88 (match) · 437 history records