Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe7a7…a7d8 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1
finance 37% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 5% +$3
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.5% -7.3% 62% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 26 +1.5% -8.1% 77% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +1.4% -8.3% 79% 3% -9.3%
all 29 +1.4% -8.3% 79% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)29 / 42
History coverage47d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? No 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 24 $204 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $24 +$1 +5%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will PARIVISION qualify for the DreamLeague Season 29 Playoffs? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $123 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $204 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $123 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $204 6d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $203 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 86¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $2 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $203 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $205 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $205 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $17 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37d
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re BUY Yes 100¢ $5 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $12 37d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.77 · official $402.77 (match) · 112 history records