Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7b2…6a58 sports 211 markets active 4h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+3%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%108W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$20
14 days+$106
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$30
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 52% -8.0%
≤30d 202 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 207 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 52% -8.6%
all 207 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 52% -8.6%
10% -17.9% 52% -17.3%
15% -25.8% 51% -25.3%
20% -33.1% 48% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses108 / 99
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions4
Markets (closed)207 / 211
History coverage62d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 53¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Jun 16 $18 +$9 +50%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $20 +$16 +76%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $16 +$12 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $16 +$7 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 14 $21 −$20 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +96%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $16 −$15 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $16 +$10 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $16 +$11 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $13 +$10 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $16 −$7 -46%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $28 +$29 +104%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $7 +$10 +152%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$9 +89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 +$13 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $26 +$19 +71%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 +$11 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $11 +$7 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $16 15h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $16 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 16h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba BUY Carles Cordoba 66¢ $18 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $8 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 50¢ $0 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 50¢ $2 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 50¢ $7 29h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 50¢ $20 31h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $21 40h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 68¢ $14 40h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 66¢ $2 42h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $10 46h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 57¢ $10 47h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $10 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris BUY Ozan Baris 42¢ $10 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2d
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Felix Balshaw 62¢ $8 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.94 · official $39.70 (match) · 356 history records