Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7b2…3b18 crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%254W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$9
14 days+$5
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$22
sports 0% −$20
politics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -4.6% -13.7% 77% 29% -9.2%
≤30d 339 -5.5% -14.5% 73% 29% -10.0%
≤90d 357 -5.1% -14.2% 71% 29% -10.2%
all 357 -5.1% -14.2% 71% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 29% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 21% -18.8%
15% -29.9% 15% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses254 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)357 / 357
History coverage58d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 357 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $79 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1730 history records