Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7b5…9f02 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$35
politics 26% −$12
sports 12% −$5
crypto 10% −$6
economics 4% −$1
finance 4% −$1
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 68 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage102d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $243 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $53 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $192 −$2 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $170 −$2 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $523 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $144 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $162 −$3 -2%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 07 $51 −$1 -2%
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $149 −$2 -2%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 8h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $49 21h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 22h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 26h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $46 26h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $47 34h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $60 35h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $60 39h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $42 40h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $52 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $58 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.31 · official $44.31 (match) · 497 history records