Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7b8…b31c sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-16%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days+$290
14 days+$185
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$138
sports 44% +$63
world 8% −$37
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +57.5% +42.5% 43% 43% +134.5%
≤30d 29 -30.0% -36.6% 21% 17% +20.4%
≤90d 29 -30.0% -36.6% 21% 17% +20.4%
all 29 -30.0% -36.6% 21% 17% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 17% +20.4%
10% -42.7% 17% +8.9%
15% -48.2% 17% -1.7%
20% -53.3% 17% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$11 · ×6.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage18d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$141 +276%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $51 +$96 +189%
Panama to score first vs. England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 +$103 +337%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $48 −$31 -64%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$45 +442%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Panama to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 46h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $17 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $24 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $24 7d
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $62 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 28¢ $10 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 11d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records