Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe7b8…31e6 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-3%) realized −$252 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%75W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days−$24
14 days−$6
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$194
other 6% +$3
crypto 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 44% -10.6%
≤30d 90 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 46% -10.6%
≤90d 96 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 45% -13.1%
all 170 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 44% -12.5%
10% -16.1% 44% -20.9%
15% -24.2% 44% -28.5%
20% -31.7% 44% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$48 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses75 / 95
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage103d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) FURIA 46¢ 54¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $36 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $46 +$50 +109%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $60 +$45 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $47 +$44 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$75 +146%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$80 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$66 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $34 +$61 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$62 +120%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $42 −$42 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$74 +200%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $59 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $65 +$50 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$44 +143%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$101 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $49 +$62 +126%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $64 +$53 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$49 +99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$55 +112%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$52 +93%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$49 +98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$38 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $80 −$79 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $46 36m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 39m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL FURIA 99¢ $96 39m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $105 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $46 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 56¢ $60 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $41 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $91 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $47 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $41 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $55 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $61 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $105 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $40 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $95 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $34 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $113 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 34¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $45 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $42 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $111 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.62 · official $88.62 (match) · 305 history records