Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe7bd…ebce
politics · 375 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29,808 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33,588 · open +$2,247
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110,719
Realized−$33,588
Unrealized+$2,247
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses321 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions24
Markets (closed)351 / 375
History coverage27d
Avg bet$13,251
Trades / day109.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 24 History 351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$5,983
14 days+$27,673
30 days−$33,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 90¢ 96¢ $15,684 $16,794 +$1,110 (+7%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)? No 98¢ 98¢ $15,049 $14,980 −$69 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 97¢ $14,297 $14,555 +$258 (+2%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $12,233 $12,318 +$85 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 98¢ 99¢ $9,312 $9,373 +$61 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 98¢ 100¢ $8,456 $8,611 +$155 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 97¢ $7,580 $7,664 +$84 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,189 $5,204 +$16 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 88¢ 98¢ $3,309 $3,676 +$367 (+11%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 78¢ 82¢ $3,027 $3,202 +$175 (+6%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,179 $3,182 +$3 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,175 $3,174 −$2 (-0%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,720 $1,721 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,610 $1,605 −$5 (-0%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,198 $1,199 +$2 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 65¢ $957 $915 −$42 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 99¢ $813 $823 +$10 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 94¢ 96¢ $472 $478 +$6 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 63¢ 68¢ $353 $378 +$25 (+7%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $291 $309 +$18 (+6%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 80¢ 84¢ $237 $249 +$12 (+5%)
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $201 $208 +$7 (+3%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $94 $59 −$34 (-37%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $2,263 +$145 +6%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $27,796 +$38 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,760 +$52 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $98,099 +$197 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $932 −$231 -25%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $29,778 −$442 -2%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $6,400 +$444 +7%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 10 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in May? Jun 10 $111 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $164,835 +$165 +0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $2,012 +$2 +0%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $250 $0 +0%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $1,339 +$2 +0%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $242 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $202 $0 +0%
Will David Atchley be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $206 $0 +0%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 09 $79 +$8 +11%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at mark Jun 09 $620 +$30 +5%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 09 $617 +$204 +33%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $54 −$11 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $13,125 +$13 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,692 +$1,299 +28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16,384 +$16 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $21,695 +$58 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1,064 +$18 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $3,778 +$31 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15,686 +$81 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $8,087 +$196 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $50,020 +$100 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34,841 +$621 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $128 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $2,718 +$5 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $170,135 +$185 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,103 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6,843 +$175 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $9,626 +$1,045 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,183 +$82 +7%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2,327 +$7 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $164,169 +$164 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $15,039 +$13 +0%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $5,939 +$124 +2%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1,160 +$11 +1%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $23,204 +$23 +0%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10,198 +$196 +2%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $12,593 +$34 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$64,408
other 21% +$5,810
politics 15% +$2,049
crypto 11% +$20,006
finance 7% +$3,003
tech 2% +$1,541
economics 1% +$416
sports 1% +$153
culture 0% +$100
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $672 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $832 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $984 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $1,067 13m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $158 14m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $3,913 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $15 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $41 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $36 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $95 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $66 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $38 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $95 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $35 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $95 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $38 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $45 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $95 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $95 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $29 19m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $246 20m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $326 20m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $27 21m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $1,829 21m
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 96¢ $1,404 25m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $594 26m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $3,171 27m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $341 27m
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 100¢ $1,437 51m
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 100¢ $1,739 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +1.7% -7.9% 94% 6% -9.1%
≤30d 351 +4.2% -5.7% 91% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 351 +4.2% -5.7% 91% 5% -10.2%
all 351 +4.2% -5.7% 91% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover109.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 5% -10.2%
10% -14.8% 3% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110,718.88 · official $110,718.77 (match) · 3302 history records