Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7c0…7f05 other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%29W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$7
politics 24% −$3
sports 23% −$1
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 225 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses29 / 196
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage175d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 09 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $85 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $125 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $125 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 24 $39 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $87 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $123 +$1 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $35 13d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 13d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 26d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 26d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $33 40d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $33 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $42 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $42 77d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $34 78d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $34 78d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $37 78d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $37 84d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $36 84d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $36 84d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 84d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 85d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 95¢ $41 85d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $41 85d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $34 85d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $34 85d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $40 85d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $39 85d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $38 85d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 86d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 86d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 86d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $36 86d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $35 86d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.87 · official $37.87 (match) · 808 history records