Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7c2…206a sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$321 (+8%) realized +$321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$332
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.1% -21.4% 66% 34% -2.6%
≤30d 29 -13.1% -21.4% 66% 34% -2.6%
≤90d 29 -13.1% -21.4% 66% 34% -2.6%
all 29 -13.1% -21.4% 66% 34% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 34% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 17% -11.9%
15% -35.8% 3% -20.4%
20% -42.1% 3% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1,381 +$14 +1%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1,294 +$84 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $973 +$298 +31%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $87 −$46 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $32 +$7 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $32 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $28 +$4 +15%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Stefan Storch Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $11 −$1 -13%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $9 −$7 -77%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $42 −$29 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 60¢ $6 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 53¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 53¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Renata Zarazua 99¢ $1,395 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 98¢ $1,381 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 98¢ $1,378 2h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 92¢ $1,294 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 76¢ $973 3h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone SELL Elizara Yaneva 100¢ $49 3h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Elizara Yaneva 96¢ $48 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $45 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 88¢ $9 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 88¢ $36 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $40 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $40 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $32 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 52¢ $32 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $13 11h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 91¢ $13 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $17 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 11h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $15 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $3 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $2 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 90¢ $13 17h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 90¢ $15 18h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 90¢ $4 18h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 90¢ $1 18h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $32 18h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records