Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7c3…20e0 weather 1001 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$635 (-2%) realized −$683 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%488W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days+$137
14 days+$469
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$14
other 5% −$18
sports 3% +$117
crypto 2% +$27
world 2% +$44
politics 2% −$91
culture 1% −$94
tech 1% +$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -56.5% -60.6% 26% 26% -5.7%
≤30d 737 -15.5% -23.6% 48% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 798 -17.4% -25.3% 48% 45% -10.3%
all 1091 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 38% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 32% -19.2%
15% -37.3% 26% -27.0%
20% -43.4% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses488 / 603
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1091 / 1001
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1091 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $102 $133 +$31 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? No 61¢ 66¢ $115 $126 +$11 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? No 64¢ 63¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? No 61¢ 64¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? No 74¢ 78¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? No 60¢ 60¢ $105 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 64¢ 63¢ $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 1? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 2? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -217%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 3? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -399%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2? Jun 17 $6 −$18 -310%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on February 28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ma Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -5315%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on March 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 2? Jun 17 $5 −$7 -149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -213%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -250%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 1? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -226%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -182%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 4? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -7280%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2? Jun 17 $3 −$7 -216%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March Jun 17 $0 −$1 -155%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 4? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -160%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $107 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $104 31m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $105 31m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $105 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $104 19h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $103 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $89 36h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $89 36h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $15 38h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $100 42h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $47 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $107 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $106 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $107 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $94 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $106 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $107 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $108 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $113 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $106 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $90 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.69 · official $794.57 (match) · 3500 history records