Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E7 0xe7c9…51fe other 23 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+8%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$12
sports 33% +$1
crypto 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +18.3% +7.1% 30% 30% +1.2%
≤30d 23 +10.8% +0.2% 30% 30% -3.6%
≤90d 23 +10.8% +0.2% 30% 30% -3.6%
all 23 +10.8% +0.2% 30% 30% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 30% -3.6%
10% -9.4% 30% -12.8%
15% -18.1% 26% -21.2%
20% -26.2% 22% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$15 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$10 +237%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +776%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$8 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$5 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $4 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records