Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7cb…25e6 crypto 1295 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$301 (-1%) realized −$454 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%283W / 1050L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day71.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$346
14 days−$382
30 days−$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 560 +12.6% +1.9% 36% 35% -13.6%
≤30d 1333 +4.5% -5.4% 21% 15% -10.3%
≤90d 1333 +4.5% -5.4% 21% 15% -10.3%
all 1333 +4.5% -5.4% 21% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 15% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 14% -18.9%
15% -22.7% 12% -26.7%
20% -30.3% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$454
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses283 / 1050
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1333 / 1295
History coverage21d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day71.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+300%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$7 -1553%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +412%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$31 -8152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$27 +7102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$8 -2253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$6 -1762%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1531%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -761%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -707%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +751%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -820%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$35 -15433%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$12 -7063%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1891%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -2033%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1946%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -2997%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -652%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -2562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1600%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1806%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +3072%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1767%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2029%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +2131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.21 · official $9.10 · 3500 history records