Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7cf…216c other 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,895 (-1%) realized −$1,895 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 124L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,237per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$36
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$36
politics 34% −$85
sports 18% −$1,872
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$2
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -4.2% -13.3% 7% 2% -10.7%
all 160 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 10% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 10% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 9% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,657) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$30 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$1,895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,237
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $211 $211 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $4,372 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $363 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3,300 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $6,102 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,076 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,527 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $886 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $233 +$3 +1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,782 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,080 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $57 +$65 +114%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,088 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,665 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,710 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $451 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,120 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $318 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,266 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,480 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,518 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $212 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $531 2h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $532 4h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $277 22h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $277 24h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $360 27h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $360 29h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $284 46h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $363 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $363 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $516 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $517 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $637 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $638 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $478 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $479 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $244 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $244 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $244 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $999 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $967 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.31 · official $211.31 (match) · 511 history records