Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7d2…70a2 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$701 (+5%) realized +$818 · open −$117
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate82%40W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1,135
other 20% −$248
culture 12% +$30
politics 10% −$250
sports 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.1% +24.0% 100% 100% +24.0%
≤30d 1 +37.1% +24.0% 100% 100% +24.0%
≤90d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 79% 58% +0.6%
all 49 +7.0% -3.2% 82% 57% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 57% -1.0%
10% -12.5% 39% -10.5%
15% -20.9% 22% -19.1%
20% -28.7% 12% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$123 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$4,149
Realized+$818
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses40 / 9
Open positions21
Markets (closed)49 / 70
History coverage166d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,399 $1,402 +$3 (+0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $123 $130 +$7 (+5%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 97¢ 97¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $99 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 37¢ 49¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 26¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 21¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes $15 $1 −$14 (-92%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$23 +37%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 17 $100 +$33 +33%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 17 $99 +$92 +92%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 17 $199 +$103 +52%
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? May 04 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e May 04 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 04 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? May 04 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? May 04 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? May 04 $199 +$19 +10%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 04 $348 +$77 +22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $249 +$113 +45%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 26 $149 −$136 -91%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $199 +$31 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $124 +$16 +13%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $348 +$85 +24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $170 +$106 +62%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $199 +$85 +42%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 08 $298 −$199 -66%
Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? Apr 07 $50 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 04 $150 +$14 +9%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $100 +$28 +28%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $600 +$228 +38%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $200 +$7 +3%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $300 +$25 +8%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $450 +$147 +33%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $610 +$108 +18%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $100 +$27 +27%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 16 $330 −$330 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $30 +$43 +144%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $657 +$57 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $210 +$140 +67%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Feb 21 $120 +$40 +33%
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $100 +$14 +14%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 29 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Jan 18 $40 −$12 -30%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 15 $100 +$47 +47%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $500 +$63 +13%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $30 +$2 +8%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 202 Jan 07 $100 +$31 +31%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 07 $30 +$1 +3%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jan 07 $75 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $203 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 17h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $201 39h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $203 2d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $302 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 23d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 23d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $202 25d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $303 25d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 25d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 25d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 25d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 26d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 26d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $99 32d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $99 32d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 43d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $200 43d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes $13 53d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $230 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 29¢ $140 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 71d
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? SELL No 28¢ $50 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,149.39 · official $4,149.38 (match) · 344 history records