Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7d5…7890 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$1
other 31% +$1
world 19% +$3
sports 6% $0
culture 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 0% -8.1%
all 36 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage288d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $56 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $4 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $2 $0 -20%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 17 $6 +$1 +26%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will H win the second most seats in the Norway election? Sep 11 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 34m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $20 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $13 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $0 188d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? SELL No 99¢ $8 271d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 271d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 271d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $24 271d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $24 271d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $25 271d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records