Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E7 0xe7d9…ed5c other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,719 (+29%) realized +$2,719 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days+$519
14 days+$519
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2,375
crypto 9% +$97
weather 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.9% -4.2% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 9 +5.9% -4.2% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 13 +21.9% +10.3% 38% 38% -0.8%
all 16 +33.8% +21.1% 50% 44% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 44% +13.3%
10% +9.5% 44% +2.5%
15% -1.1% 44% -7.4%
20% -10.8% 31% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$480 vs −$184 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,719
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage195d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,630 +$607 +37%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $880 +$1,180 +134%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,720 −$698 -41%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,100 −$107 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $700 −$186 -27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $450 −$181 -40%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $170 +$80 +47%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $520 −$170 -33%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $34 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13? Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $50 +$177 +354%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $200 +$156 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 09 $716 +$1,353 +189%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $699 +$36 +5%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 26 $400 +$250 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $2,237 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $2,060 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,022 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $993 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $514 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $269 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $250 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $350 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $170 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $520 72d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $700 72d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $450 72d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $880 72d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,100 72d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,630 72d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,720 72d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $227 74d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $191 75d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 75d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 75d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 50¢ $165 75d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 76d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13? BUY No 55¢ $100 76d
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $2,068 138d
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 26¢ $716 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8PM ET BUY Down $10 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $736 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records