Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7db…4fa3 sports 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$112 (+0%) realized +$114 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%168W / 129L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$15
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$12
other 37% +$46
world 6% +$10
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% +$4
economics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 73% 9% -9.2%
≤30d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 113 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 28% -11.4%
all 297 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 30% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 30% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 26% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 22% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses168 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)297 / 299
History coverage666d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $370 $369 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $249 $247 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $235 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $90 −$29 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $59 +$30 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $192 +$8 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $296 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $96 −$31 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $93 +$39 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $266 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $257 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$6 +172%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $269 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $675 −$9 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $27 +$23 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $73 −$31 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $350 +$19 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $197 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $551 +$2 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 22 $40 $0 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $48 +$1 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 11 $56 +$5 +8%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 11 $85 +$15 +18%
Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $75 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 7m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 18h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 18h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $92 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.38 · official $616.38 (match) · 1418 history records