Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7db…f9ea politics 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$1
other 28% $0
world 26% +$4
tech 8% +$1
weather 7% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 8 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 12% -6.3%
≤90d 8 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 12% -6.3%
all 36 +1.8% -7.9% 28% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -8.6%
10% -16.7% 3% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.67 per $1 lost it wins $8.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage320d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $14 +$3 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 06 $1 +$1 +36%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records