Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7db…feb0 crypto 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,176 (-12%) realized −$6,214 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%121W / 164L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$490
14 days+$741
30 days−$1,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$2,621
other 24% −$495
culture 14% −$2,957
world 9% +$488
politics 7% +$364
sports 6% −$1,340
tech 4% +$54
finance 2% −$15
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 78 +18.3% +7.1% 56% 32% -17.5%
≤90d 115 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 26% -17.6%
all 285 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 27% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 27% -21.3%
10% -20.6% 21% -28.8%
15% -28.3% 17% -35.7%
20% -35.3% 16% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$98 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$1,544
Realized−$6,214
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses121 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions7
Markets (closed)285 / 292
History coverage213d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $857 $993 +$136 (+16%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $149 $199 +$50 (+33%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 61¢ 86¢ $122 $171 +$49 (+40%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $182 $1 −$181 (-99%)
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 70¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 22 $236 +$64 +27%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $194 −$26 -13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 20 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $271 −$181 -67%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $132 −$4 -3%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 19 $131 +$88 +67%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 19 $140 −$45 -32%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 19 $164 +$25 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $251 +$49 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $527 +$60 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 16 $35 −$18 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $333 +$66 +20%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $234 +$66 +28%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $162 +$325 +200%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $105 +$165 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $46 +$54 +115%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $87 −$20 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $54 −$14 -26%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $1 +$14 +1328%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 11 $25 +$2 +10%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $122 +$6 +5%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -91%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $47 +$2 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +56%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $135 +$86 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 98¢ $209 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $83 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $120 27h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $315 27h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $132 34h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 78¢ $235 37h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $425 39h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $360 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $43 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $27 40h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $3 40h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $6 40h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $430 40h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $47 40h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 40h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $102 43h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $16 2d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.