Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E7 0xe7dd…b96d other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,172 (-19%) realized −$2,162 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$515per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$41est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,443

7 days−$1,697

14 days−$2,414

30 days−$2,414

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-47.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-40.5%	-46.2%	35%	35%	-26.0%
≤30d	20	-41.5%	-47.1%	35%	35%	-29.9%
≤90d	20	-41.5%	-47.1%	35%	35%	-29.9%
all	20	-41.5%	-47.1%	35%	35%	-29.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.1%	35%	-29.9%
10%	-52.2%	30%	-36.6%
15%	-56.8%	15%	-42.7%
20%	-61.0%	5%	-48.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$807) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -27% → late -56% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$225 vs −$307 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$590

Realized−$2,162

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$41

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage10d

Avg bet$515

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$300	$305	+$5 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	50¢	48¢	$300	$285	−$15 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$1,523	−$395	-26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$512	−$512	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$509	+$348	+68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$103	−$103	-100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	Jun 26	$304	−$304	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$506	+$116	+23%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States?	Jun 26	$103	−$28	-28%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 26	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 26	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 26	$307	−$307	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$507	+$186	+37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$508	−$269	-53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,012	+$313	+31%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 24	$1,037	−$1,032	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$508	+$221	+44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1,681	+$244	+14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$506	+$148	+29%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$807	−$790	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$103	−$75	-73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	50¢	$306	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$308	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL No	18¢	$130	13h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY No	67¢	$507	15h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL No	67¢	$997	15h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY No	67¢	$507	15h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY No	65¢	$508	16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$857	16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$512	21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$509	22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$621	38h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States?	SELL Yes	21¢	$74	38h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY No	34¢	$304	39h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States?	BUY Yes	28¢	$103	39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$103	39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$693	41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	80¢	$506	44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	72¢	$507	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	30¢	$239	45h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	40¢	$307	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$508	47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,325	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$1,012	3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL Yes	0¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	27¢	$41	3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	94¢	$729	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$508	3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,925	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.25 · official $590.36 (match) · 45 history records