Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe7de…2b2f crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$10
sports 36% −$10
other 11% −$18
economics 6% $0
politics 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -1.6% -10.9% 67% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,510) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage196d
Avg bet$793
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? Mar 25 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 27 $117 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 27 $30 −$15 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 3? Feb 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $5,049 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Feb 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 21 $5,015 −$5 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $3,203 −$3 -0%
Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 16 $3,200 −$3 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $3,211 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 8? Jan 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 23? Dec 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 17? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? Dec 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 13? Dec 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? Dec 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 11? Dec 11 $40 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1,512 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Dec 09 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 09 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $113 68d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $63 106d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $116 115d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $26 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $48 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $50 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $5,010 152d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5,015 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $5,015 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5,049 152d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 154d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $30 155d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,200 158d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,203 158d
Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,197 158d
Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,200 158d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,208 158d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,211 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.89 · official $54.89 (match) · 72 history records