Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7df…bfef crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$11
sports 35% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.7% -44.6% 30% 30% -31.9%
≤30d 10 -38.7% -44.6% 30% 30% -31.9%
≤90d 10 -38.7% -44.6% 30% 30% -31.9%
all 10 -38.7% -44.6% 30% 30% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 30% -31.9%
10% -49.9% 30% -38.4%
15% -54.7% 30% -44.4%
20% -59.1% 30% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$36 +137%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$32 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 28m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.31 · official $76.31 (match) · 22 history records