Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe7e5…6e53 crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$385 (-3%) realized −$370 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%158W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$8
14 days−$182
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$316
sports 34% +$4
other 20% −$212
tech 4% −$168
finance 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.3% -17.0% 38% 38% -10.7%
≤30d 171 -16.0% -24.0% 41% 40% -28.8%
≤90d 309 -8.1% -16.8% 51% 49% -14.0%
all 309 -8.1% -16.8% 51% 49% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 49% -14.0%
10% -24.8% 42% -22.3%
15% -32.0% 34% -29.8%
20% -38.7% 27% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$370
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses158 / 151
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions4
Markets (closed)309 / 313
History coverage37d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 180.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $113 $111 −$3 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Up 51¢ 48¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Up 51¢ 20¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$12 +68%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $64 −$8 -13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $32 +$45 +142%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$3 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$5 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$15 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 25 $60 +$54 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 24 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $43 +$62 +145%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $226 −$69 -31%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $39 +$26 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$30 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$10 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $127 −$68 -54%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $154 −$152 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $203 −$20 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $31 42m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 51¢ $115 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $56 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $64 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 91¢ $76 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 37¢ $32 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $12 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $37 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.69 · official $142.70 (match) · 612 history records