Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7e5…cc65 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$149 (+3%) realized +$143 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate67%37W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$19
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.8% -14.8% 58% 17% -11.6%
≤30d 48 +19.6% +8.2% 69% 40% -8.5%
≤90d 55 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 38% -8.3%
all 55 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 38% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 38% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 29% -17.1%
15% -10.3% 16% -25.1%
20% -19.1% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses37 / 18
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage37d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner K27 87¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs K27 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $416 −$13 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $127 −$5 -4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $135 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $38 −$32 -83%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $5 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $197 +$14 +7%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $133 +$17 +13%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $240 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $150 −$14 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $170 −$33 -19%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $232 +$4 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 +$3 +156%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $84 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $99 −$12 -13%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $48 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $135 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $136 +$34 +25%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $25 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $98 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $38 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $81 −$16 -19%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $5 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $45 −$19 -42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$10 -32%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $15 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $15 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 01 $15 +$1 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $17 +$2 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $8 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci Jun 01 $6 +$14 +255%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $34 +$10 +29%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winner May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 29 $118 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 29 $54 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 29 $134 +$9 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 29 $109 −$10 -10%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 29 $77 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage May 28 $21 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $45 +$10 +22%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner May 23 $70 +$26 +37%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport - Map 2 Winner May 23 $56 +$16 +28%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 23 $8 +$1 +15%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner May 20 $7 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed May 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 39¢ $27 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $13 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $16 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 57¢ $17 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 62¢ $12 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 34¢ $16 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $8 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $22 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 33¢ $16 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 70¢ $3 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 71¢ $23 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $4 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $6 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 71¢ $17 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 69¢ $46 7m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $12 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 71¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 54¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $13 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 56¢ $8 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 63¢ $14 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 77¢ $27 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 81¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 81¢ $11 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $11 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $17 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 79¢ $18 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.54 · official $65.54 (match) · 1173 history records