Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7f3…af78 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+6%) realized +$248 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$23
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$215
sports 28% +$32
culture 27% +$65
world 4% −$16
economics 2% −$6
politics 1% −$5
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 14 +11.5% +0.8% 57% 43% +2.0%
≤90d 45 +0.1% -9.5% 42% 38% -8.0%
all 70 +3.3% -6.6% 43% 37% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 37% -4.0%
10% -15.5% 30% -13.2%
15% -23.7% 26% -21.6%
20% -31.2% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$738
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions10
Markets (closed)70 / 80
History coverage224d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 45¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $50 −$28 -56%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $71 +$19 +26%
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? May 28 $6 +$3 +50%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 26 $101 +$40 +40%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $31 +$24 +77%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 22 $71 +$16 +23%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $40 +$38 +94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$22 +73%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 12 $100 +$45 +45%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $56 +$11 +19%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $50 −$11 -22%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $50 +$10 +20%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $25 −$7 -26%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $50 −$20 -41%
NBA Playoffs: Suns vs. Thunder Total Games O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $25 +$30 +122%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi Apr 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 25 $20 $0 -2%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $20 +$65 +325%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 22 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $100 −$4 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 17 $80 +$20 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 +$11 +57%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 04 $100 −$36 -36%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $20 −$6 -32%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $15 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 22 $50 −$10 -21%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $53 1h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 9h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 10h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 22h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 29h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 44h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 45h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 2d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $54 2d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $4 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 13d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 13d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 13d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 14d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes $22 14d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 15d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 15d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 15d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 15d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 15d
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.86 · official $737.86 (match) · 328 history records