Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E7 0xe7f3…8a0d sports 148 markets active 3d ago coverage 161d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$84 (+27%) realized +$96 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%47W / 99L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$76
14 days+$74
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$44
other 37% −$37
crypto 5% +$78
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +105.3% +85.7% 18% 18% +435.5%
≤30d 29 +40.4% +27.0% 31% 31% +186.2%
≤90d 117 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 25% +10.1%
all 146 +24.9% +13.0% 32% 32% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 32% +25.1%
10% +2.2% 32% +13.1%
15% -7.7% 32% +2.2%
20% -16.8% 32% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses47 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage161d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $57 $48 −$9 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$80 +1548%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +510%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$2 +172%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 29 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 2 - 0 Leeds United FC? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 - 2 Everton FC? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $1 +$2 +165%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 20 $1 +$1 +124%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 3 Chelsea FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 04 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Liverpool FC? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $1 +$2 +152%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes $1 5d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes $1 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $1 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 10d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $1 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $1 21d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Thunder 38¢ $1 23d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $1 24d
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 2 - 0 Leeds United FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25d
Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 - 2 Everton FC? BUY Yes $1 25d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 28¢ $1 25d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 26d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 38¢ $1 27d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $1 28d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Thunder 45¢ $1 29d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Knicks 44¢ $1 30d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 3 Chelsea FC? BUY Yes $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.26 · official $55.26 (match) · 347 history records