Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7f4…bc90 weather 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,956 (+18%) realized +$10,283 · open +$1,673
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%49W / 97L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,680
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$11,483
other 10% −$2,104
sports 8% −$1,467
weather 8% −$227
economics 5% +$1,344
crypto 3% −$754
finance 1% −$377
politics 1% −$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -32.6% -39.0% 19% 19% -12.6%
≤90d 102 -37.8% -43.8% 30% 24% -0.1%
all 146 -33.8% -40.1% 34% 27% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 27% -0.4%
10% -45.8% 20% -9.9%
15% -51.1% 18% -18.6%
20% -55.9% 14% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -45% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$140 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$5,848
Realized+$10,283
Unrealized+$1,673
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses49 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions10
Markets (closed)146 / 161
History coverage96d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 26¢ $1,250 $3,926 +$2,676 (+214%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 24¢ $1,474 $1,024 −$450 (-31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $157 +$62 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $200 $147 −$53 (-26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $96 $133 +$37 (+38%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $580 $115 −$464 (-80%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $141 $114 −$27 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $72 $82 +$10 (+14%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $168 $52 −$116 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 12 $1,500 −$146 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $489 −$211 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,262 −$471 -37%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$53 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $501 −$188 -38%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $1,337 −$1,277 -96%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $197 −$11 -5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $1,084 −$220 -20%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 09 $665 −$189 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$101 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,373 −$846 -62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $499 +$1,534 +307%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $839 −$807 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,011 −$995 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $254 −$248 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $452 −$441 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $600 −$600 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $1,000 +$256 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $3,008 +$4,388 +146%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $505 −$487 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $1,000 +$43 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $2,000 +$8 +0%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? May 01 $491 −$179 -36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $26 −$25 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $4,879 +$755 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $2,550 −$348 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $5,284 +$2,198 +42%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 24 $84 −$84 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$16 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 23 $738 +$138 +19%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $3,223 +$542 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $2,168 +$1,588 +73%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $119 +$5 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $680 +$1,343 +198%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $221 −$10 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $100 +$43 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1,336 +$1,935 +145%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $1,400 −$1,177 -84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $2,375 +$2,201 +93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $1,100 +$427 +39%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18? Apr 18 $30 −$25 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $454 −$182 -40%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $144 −$82 -57%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1,474 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,469 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,333 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 28¢ $1,333 12h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $595 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY $99 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY $76 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $773 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $98 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $145 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $278 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $63 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY $195 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY $140 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $266 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $47 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY $410 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $1,532 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $570 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 18¢ $193 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 82¢ $1,569 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $308 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $326 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $186 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $187 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $297 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $465 9d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $864 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,848.39 · official $5,848.39 (match) · 462 history records