Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7fe…24e5 other 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,573 (+20%) realized +$6,447 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%99W / 158L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$8,417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days+$103
14 days−$128
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$3,538
other 39% +$166
sports 8% −$414
world 4% −$113
tech 3% −$250
economics 1% +$54
crypto 1% −$50
finance 1% −$69
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -5.8% -14.7% 52% 31% -7.4%
≤30d 114 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 27% -0.2%
≤90d 197 -13.0% -21.2% 34% 23% -8.1%
all 257 -1.1% -10.6% 39% 30% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 30% +5.7%
10% -19.1% 25% -4.4%
15% -26.9% 22% -13.7%
20% -34.1% 18% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$31 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$8,417
Realized+$6,447
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses99 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions87
Markets (closed)257 / 345
History coverage612d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? No 55¢ 76¢ $795 $1,085 +$290 (+36%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $641 $882 +$241 (+38%)
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $674 $756 +$82 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $581 $584 +$3 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 46¢ 54¢ $421 $494 +$73 (+17%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 92¢ $249 $434 +$185 (+74%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 69¢ $361 $393 +$33 (+9%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $328 $310 −$18 (-5%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 54¢ 66¢ $229 $276 +$47 (+20%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No 37¢ 51¢ $130 $179 +$49 (+37%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $169 $174 +$5 (+3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $154 $147 −$7 (-5%)
Will 100T make a roster change before August? No 37¢ 38¢ $140 $146 +$7 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $173 $145 −$28 (-16%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 65¢ $153 $130 −$23 (-15%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $125 $115 −$10 (-8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $76 $102 +$26 (+34%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+16%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 46¢ 44¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 69¢ 87¢ $69 $87 +$18 (+26%)
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 89¢ 84¢ $89 $84 −$5 (-6%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? No 80¢ 83¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 65¢ $93 $81 −$12 (-13%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI Jun 19 $7 +$13 +178%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $18 +$2 +11%
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? Jun 19 $211 +$125 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World C Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 18 $89 +$3 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 +$11 +119%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Ko Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $327 −$218 -67%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $18 +$3 +18%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $176 +$4 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 16 $110 +$15 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 15 $121 −$6 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $26 +$81 +309%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $62 +$41 +65%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $1,875 −$50 -3%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 15 $74 +$10 +14%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $98 −$70 -72%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $90 +$7 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$53 -52%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $325 +$239 +74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 14 $55 +$21 +39%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $152 −$20 -13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $86 −$34 -40%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $75 −$4 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$29 +262%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $238 +$5 +2%
Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Jun 13 $23 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 13 $262 +$207 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 28m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $172 1h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $53 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 91¢ $114 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $132 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 91¢ $136 2h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY No 34¢ $8 2h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3h
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 11¢ $6 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $44 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $68 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 9¢ $7 3h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? SELL Yes 78¢ $250 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $62 3h
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL No 22¢ $1 4h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,417.01 · official $8,366.56 (match) · 2556 history records