Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe800…6bfb crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$239 (-14%) realized −$245 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%62W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$133
14 days+$133
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$180
crypto 42% −$39
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.5% +50.6% 100% 100% +50.6%
≤30d 12 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 112 -11.3% -19.8% 55% 45% -23.0%
all 112 -11.3% -19.8% 55% 45% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 45% -23.0%
10% -27.4% 32% -30.4%
15% -34.5% 23% -37.1%
20% -40.9% 18% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses62 / 50
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage50d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 24¢ 26¢ $62 $69 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $200 +$133 +66%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $110 −$91 -83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $48 +$69 +144%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs JiJieHao (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 24 $48 +$47 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 21 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 21 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 24¢ $62 50m
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $333 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $150 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 35¢ $105 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 15d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 24¢ $30 17d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sinners 10¢ $19 17d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 56¢ $110 17d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 43¢ $90 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 18d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Alliance Guardians 41¢ $48 19d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs JiJieHao (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs SELL Atreides 100¢ $95 27d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs JiJieHao (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs BUY Atreides 50¢ $48 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.64 · official $68.64 (match) · 274 history records