Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe802…6aae other 113 markets active 4h ago coverage 39d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$46 (+7%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%71W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$17
crypto 13% +$20
sports 11% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +37.5% +24.4% 56% 56% -19.7%
≤30d 87 +36.9% +23.8% 64% 61% -4.0%
≤90d 109 +33.1% +20.5% 65% 60% -2.4%
all 109 +33.1% +20.5% 65% 60% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 60% -2.4%
10% +8.9% 51% -11.7%
15% -1.6% 36% -20.3%
20% -11.2% 26% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses71 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +33%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 +$15 +212%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -24%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$20 +980%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +146%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1546%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +595%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 74¢ $22 13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 69¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $2 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 62¢ $2 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $2 41h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 41h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 215 history records