Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe805…5c37 crypto 142 markets active 4d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$398 (+3%) realized +$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%109W / 33L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$520
14 days+$520
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$163
other 9% +$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +65.7% +49.9% 57% 57% +35.2%
≤30d 7 +65.7% +49.9% 57% 57% +35.2%
≤90d 142 +2.3% -7.4% 77% 4% -6.8%
all 142 +2.3% -7.4% 77% 4% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -6.8%
10% -16.3% 4% -15.8%
15% -24.4% 2% -23.9%
20% -31.8% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses109 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage79d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$174 +85%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $102 +$447 +437%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $176 +$290 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $132 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 08 $32 −$14 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 02 $111 −$61 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 02 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 02 $107 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 02 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 02 $105 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 02 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 01 $103 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 01 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 01 $102 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 31 $135 −$64 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 31 $134 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 31 $133 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 31 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 31 $131 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 31 $128 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 31 $127 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 31 $127 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 31 $166 −$75 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 31 $163 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 31 $163 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 31 $163 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 31 $161 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 31 $161 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $160 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 31 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 31 $157 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 31 $156 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 31 $156 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 31 $154 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 31 $154 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 31 $153 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 31 $152 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 31 $187 −$66 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 31 $186 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 31 $184 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 31 $183 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 31 $182 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 87¢ $377 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $550 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $466 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $176 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $163 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $18 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $50 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $111 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $110 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $112 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $107 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $107 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $109 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $105 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $104 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records