Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe806…5f22 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-14%) realized −$29 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$39
world 34% −$1
other 22% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.3% -0.2% 33% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 3 +10.3% -0.2% 33% 33% -10.7%
≤90d 3 +10.3% -0.2% 33% 33% -10.7%
all 10 -66.9% -70.1% 10% 10% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.1% 10% -44.7%
10% -72.9% 10% -50.0%
15% -75.5% 10% -54.8%
20% -77.9% 10% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage109d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 25¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 27 $40 −$9 -23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.64 · official $62.98 · 18 history records