Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe807…4dc8 sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,501 (-9%) realized −$2,501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%94W / 82L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days−$336
30 days−$2,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,539
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -41.0% -46.7% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 65 -41.1% -46.7% 31% 29% -34.0%
≤90d 175 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 48% -17.7%
all 176 -5.5% -14.5% 53% 48% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 48% -17.7%
10% -22.7% 44% -25.6%
15% -30.2% 41% -32.8%
20% -37.0% 31% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$118 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses94 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage533d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $503 +$101 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$115 -38%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$105 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$42 -42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$169 -84%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$97 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$87 -86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$175 +86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$214 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$92 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $203 +$224 +110%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $203 +$111 +54%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $102 +$352 +344%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$43 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $10 −$9 -86%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $153 −$58 -38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $603 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 82¢ $503 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $51 3h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 44¢ $51 22h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 86¢ $100 24h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 7¢ $15 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $102 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 51¢ $173 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 58¢ $203 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $102 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $204 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $308 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 39¢ $59 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $101 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $202 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 72¢ $31 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $202 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $100 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $101 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $202 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $102 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $202 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $203 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 59¢ $202 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $266 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 9¢ $51 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $201 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $202 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 65¢ $102 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records