Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe807…4d35
other · 557 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,562 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,210 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,434
Realized+$12,210
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses364 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions45
Markets (closed)510 / 557
History coverage41d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 45 History 510 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,342
7 days+$1,916
14 days−$547
30 days+$11,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5,690 $5,702 +$12 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 98¢ $2,133 $2,125 −$8 (-0%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $2,008 $2,092 +$84 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,170 $1,173 +$3 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $1,076 $1,029 −$47 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 98¢ 97¢ $532 $527 −$4 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)? Yes 75¢ 95¢ $286 $363 +$77 (+27%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $334 $335 +$1 (+0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 97¢ $265 $258 −$6 (-2%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Yes 90¢ 62¢ $268 $183 −$85 (-32%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $178 $176 −$2 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 97¢ 96¢ $176 $174 −$2 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 90¢ $158 $154 −$4 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 94¢ 93¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 97¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Isack Hadjar achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 97¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $86 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 98¢ 97¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 99¢ 50¢ $99 $50 −$48 (-49%)
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 67¢ 78¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+17%)
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 99¢ 72¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $13 −$9 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $977 −$93 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $870 −$61 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $7,519 +$1,795 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,323 +$29 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $140 +$2 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $627 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $939 −$38 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$16 +442%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $1,139 −$64 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $34 −$3 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $390 −$229 -59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $593 +$3 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $527 −$21 -4%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $7,098 −$36 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,192 −$60 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,196 +$114 +10%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 10 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $533 +$5 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $16 −$12 -78%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $166 −$28 -17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23,500 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $496 +$4 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $379 +$3 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,537 +$8 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,374 +$730 +53%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $371 +$8 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $462 +$11 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $19 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $380 +$17 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$13,539
world 26% −$42
politics 26% −$2,146
crypto 10% +$872
finance 4% +$59
sports 2% +$8
tech 2% −$140
economics 0% +$24
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $66 12m
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $33 13m
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY No 100¢ $164 13m
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $101 13m
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY No 100¢ $101 13m
Will Isack Hadjar achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $101 13m
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY No 99¢ $50 13m
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 94¢ $9 37m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 40m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,068 40m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 41m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $625 43m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $720 44m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,954 46m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 46m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $1,977 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $24 51m
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 82¢ $5 51m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 52m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $22 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $75 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $87 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $9 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -1.5% -10.8% 73% 6% -7.8%
≤30d 435 +14.1% +3.3% 70% 11% -8.1%
≤90d 510 +17.8% +6.6% 71% 12% -8.1%
all 510 +17.8% +6.6% 71% 12% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 12% -8.1%
10% -3.6% 7% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -24.9%
20% -21.5% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,433.90 · official $15,435.60 (match) · 3500 history records