Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe807…307c sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,175 (+2%) realized +$7,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%56W / 34L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$4,029per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$3,233est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,993
other 7% +$8,971
world 3% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 90 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 59% -8.0%
all 90 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 59% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 59% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 51% -16.8%
15% -17.7% 46% -24.9%
20% -25.7% 36% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$4,367) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,965 vs −$3,059 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$7,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses56 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$3,233
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4,029
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $683 $682 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $182 +$198 +108%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $298 +$136 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $270 −$270 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $580 −$570 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gustavo Heide vs Jurij Rodionov May 20 $265 −$260 -98%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) May 19 $1,004 +$446 +44%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $143 +$199 +140%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $902 −$894 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 14 $510 +$359 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 14 $520 −$514 -99%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $256 +$146 +57%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $654 +$491 +75%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $3,486 −$3,480 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $1,697 −$1,653 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $986 −$984 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $4,250 −$1,311 -31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $1,654 −$1,612 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $4,393 +$1,550 +35%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) May 11 $197 +$91 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $1,518 +$82 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $6,682 +$67 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $856 +$1,543 +180%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $1,498 −$1,469 -98%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) May 10 $454 +$244 +54%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $1,742 +$1,857 +107%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $29,780 −$29,546 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens May 09 $1,425 +$1,131 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $10,742 +$5,404 +50%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) May 09 $290 −$289 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $391 +$98 +25%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $4,804 +$9,094 +189%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $3,811 +$5,526 +145%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $1,479 +$773 +52%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $368 −$358 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 07 $1,229 −$1,216 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 07 $6,527 −$2,458 -38%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $239 +$146 +61%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric May 07 $4,473 +$5,527 +124%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 07 $592 −$582 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini May 07 $3,046 +$1,473 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean May 07 $311 −$306 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $2,336 −$2,299 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 06 $3,870 +$3,870 +100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Shevche May 06 $1,431 +$3,338 +233%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann May 06 $1,418 +$2,632 +186%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Magdalena Frech May 06 $1,469 +$1,021 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $3,619 +$3,041 +84%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $18,734 +$2,716 +14%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federico Bondioli vs Emili May 04 $562 +$1,438 +256%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Dalibor May 04 $3,384 +$4,926 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $686 1h
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $1 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $5 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $5 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $5 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $117 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $23 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $5 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $3 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $3 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $2 31d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $91 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $31 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $0 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $0 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $0 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $0 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $1 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $14 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $4 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $1 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $0 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $7 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 18¢ $7 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.12 · official $682.12 (match) · 1081 history records