Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe809…039b world 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,427 (+5%) realized +$6,279 · open −$852
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%112W / 112L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days−$237
14 days−$624
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$8,537
politics 8% +$98
other 7% −$1,763
sports 6% −$1,283
crypto 3% −$552
finance 2% −$118
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 38% -20.4%
≤30d 64 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 34% -11.0%
≤90d 216 +9.5% -0.9% 51% 35% -4.0%
all 224 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 35% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 35% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 27% -13.6%
15% -20.1% 22% -21.9%
20% -28.0% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$82 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized+$6,279
Unrealized−$852
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses112 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions8
Markets (closed)224 / 241
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$445
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 98¢ $409 $563 +$155 (+38%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 12¢ $1,304 $287 −$1,017 (-78%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 56¢ $180 $187 +$7 (+4%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $119 $124 +$4 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 65¢ 76¢ $65 $75 +$10 (+16%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $81 $75 −$6 (-7%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $54 $47 −$7 (-13%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 26 $250 +$60 +24%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$13 -62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 −$26 -59%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $74 +$106 +143%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $39 +$35 +89%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $88 +$42 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$33 +51%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $47 +$53 +112%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $810 −$36 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 −$153 -77%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 20 $27 −$6 -21%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $20 −$6 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 −$54 -86%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$59 +230%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$49 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 −$41 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $1,274 −$62 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $149 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $122 +$69 +57%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $50 −$12 -23%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 06 $1,552 −$60 -4%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 05 $94 −$94 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 05 $71 +$119 +167%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 05 $2,316 +$206 +9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $518 −$516 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $630 −$353 -56%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $86 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $143 −$132 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $357 −$54 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 04 $342 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,672 +$31 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $289 −$93 -32%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,174 +$276 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $786 +$93 +12%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,095 +$122 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $75 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 8¢ $15 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 60¢ $15 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 60¢ $1 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 60¢ $50 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $51 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $42 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 66¢ $40 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 66¢ $29 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $54 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 66¢ $89 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $75 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $8 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $11 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $10 28h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 49¢ $6 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 49¢ $47 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $50 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $36 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $87 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.61 · official $1,376.91 · 3500 history records