Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe80b…7e1b crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$172 (-0%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 50L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$30
14 days−$1,819
30 days+$1,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$2,028
sports 29% −$869
crypto 26% −$2,191
other 8% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +9.1% -1.2% 65% 59% -8.2%
≤30d 53 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 45% -5.7%
≤90d 103 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 42% -10.0%
all 104 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 42% -9.9%
10% -21.6% 36% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 29% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$201 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage595d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$47 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$21 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$10 +15%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 +$32 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $157 −$60 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$71 +68%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $130 −$85 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$40 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $212 −$116 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 +$20 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $226 +$88 +39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$37 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $130 +$90 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $357 −$132 -37%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $67 −$56 -84%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $5,935 −$1,792 -30%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $7,566 +$4,052 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $297 −$241 -81%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $662 −$364 -55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,354 +$307 +13%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $527 −$87 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $517 −$417 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $307 −$278 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $715 +$306 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $415 −$219 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $202 −$139 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $723 +$43 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $311 −$134 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $518 −$369 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $205 −$95 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $207 +$100 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $206 +$149 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $205 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $208 +$242 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $55 +$158 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $305 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $258 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $207 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $304 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $514 +$315 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $310 −$125 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$83 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $307 −$196 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $154 −$93 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $154 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$96 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $131 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 36¢ $97 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 917 history records