Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E8 0xe80c…7b44 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$11 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$39
economics 13% +$1
politics 11% −$3
other 9% +$9
finance 2% $0
tech 2% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.5% -8.1% 52% 19% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 20% -8.7%
≤90d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 20% -8.7%
all 25 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 20% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 20% -8.7%
10% -10.7% 12% -17.4%
15% -19.3% 12% -25.4%
20% -27.2% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions23
Markets (closed)25 / 48
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 36¢ 93¢ $20 $52 +$32 (+158%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 84¢ 78¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 79¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? No 63¢ 91¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 71¢ 70¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? No 39¢ 46¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 71¢ 67¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No 45¢ 51¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 28 $120 −$23 -19%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $12 +$2 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 27 $27 −$5 -17%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 27 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 26 $4 $0 +3%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $30 +$17 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 25 $11 −$4 -40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +45%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -54%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 18 $26 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $97 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $21 6h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $7 10h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $70 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $120 11h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $50 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 11h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 94¢ $15 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $50 16h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc SELL No 100¢ $14 16h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 21h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY No 87¢ $12 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $15 26h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December BUY No 45¢ $1 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December BUY No 45¢ $2 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $15 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December BUY No 45¢ $2 31h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December BUY No 45¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.14 · official $623.34 (match) · 117 history records