Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe80e…032e other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 34% −$17
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 6% -9.1%
all 45 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -10.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage308d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $66 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $67 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $62 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $62 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $128 −$3 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $58 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $63 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $63 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $66 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $67 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $62 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $41 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records