Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe80f…b81b sports 517 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$931 (-1%) realized −$918 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%332W / 182L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$560est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$556
14 days−$189
30 days−$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,938
other 16% +$614
world 0% +$6
culture 0% −$22
politics 0% −$29
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +30.3% +17.9% 84% 72% +16.9%
≤30d 183 +1.0% -8.6% 63% 58% -11.8%
≤90d 505 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 59% -11.2%
all 514 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 59% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 59% -11.2%
10% -17.1% 45% -19.7%
15% -25.1% 30% -27.5%
20% -32.5% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$87 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$918
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses332 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$560
Open positions2
Markets (closed)514 / 517
History coverage102d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Over 75¢ 56¢ $76 $57 −$19 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $79 −$52 -66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$15 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 +$39 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$8 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $65 +$37 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $47 +$12 +26%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $50 +$17 +33%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$27 +174%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $53 −$52 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $102 +$144 +141%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $94 +$59 +62%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $314 +$28 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 Jun 12 $50 +$22 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $75 +$7 +10%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $439 −$438 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$26 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 11 $189 +$29 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 11 $151 +$19 +13%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $59 −$3 -6%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $148 +$52 +35%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $162 −$14 -8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $167 +$31 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$42 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $48 −$47 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $33 −$33 -99%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $132 −$62 -47%
Will Angola vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 05 $50 −$43 -86%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $855 +$40 +5%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $492 −$150 -30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $448 +$152 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $355 −$350 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $126 +$60 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 04 $123 −$102 -83%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $34 +$13 +39%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $61 −$2 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $54 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $37 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $77 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $26 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $79 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $150 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $99 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $101 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $60 29h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $65 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $59 29h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $67 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $133 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 78¢ $47 31h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $50 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $101 31h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $9 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 56¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $84 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.23 · official $207.55 · 1206 history records