Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe811…ac72 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+27%) realized −$2,951 · open +$3,074
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$9
other 10% +$3,242
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +41.3% +27.9% 55% 53% +26.5%
≤30d 38 +41.3% +27.9% 55% 53% +26.5%
≤90d 38 +41.3% +27.9% 55% 53% +26.5%
all 38 +41.3% +27.9% 55% 53% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.9% 53% +26.5%
10% +15.6% 53% +14.4%
15% +4.5% 42% +3.3%
20% -5.8% 34% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,104
Realized−$2,951
Unrealized+$3,074
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $20 $3,100 +$3,080 (+15400%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$25 +242%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +54%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$156 +1519%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -88%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $9 −$4 -40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$8 -79%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$8 -82%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -15%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $19 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 20m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 36m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $22 41m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 45m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 15h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 41h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 41h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 41h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 3d
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,103.98 · official $3,103.98 (match) · 70 history records