Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe812…7c12 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-5%) realized −$251 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%67W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$48
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$477
world 25% −$425
crypto 17% −$281
sports 12% −$42
finance 2% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.7% -23.8% 56% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 30 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 33% -17.7%
≤90d 92 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 25% -20.6%
all 190 -18.2% -26.0% 35% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 31% -14.8%
10% -33.1% 31% -22.9%
15% -39.6% 28% -30.4%
20% -45.5% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses67 / 123
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage113d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $56 +$5 +9%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $222 +$111 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$68 +45%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $406 −$203 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +107%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$6 +59%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$8 -38%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 05 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $30 −$20 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $102 −$8 -8%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 11 $10 +$18 +172%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $251 +$162 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $10 −$7 -73%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 10 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $58 +$5 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $142 +$104 +73%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $152 −$145 -95%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $131 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $61 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 92¢ $56 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $222 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $194 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $0 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.00 · official $37.50 · 455 history records