Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe812…eb7f politics 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%32W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$10
sports 20% −$3
other 20% −$4
crypto 9% −$4
culture 6% −$2
world 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 110 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 203 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses32 / 171
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage158d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $26 $0 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $26 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $30 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $24 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $27 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $47 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $27 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $65 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $32 $0 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $65 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 1h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 7h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $28 12d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 13d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $23 13d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $23 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $11 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $1 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $10 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $23 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $23 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $26 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 94¢ $25 14d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $26 14d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $26 14d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 14d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 96¢ $28 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $26 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $26 15d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 15d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 15d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $18 15d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $18 15d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 15d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 16d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 97¢ $25 16d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 97¢ $25 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $31 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 819 history records