Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E8 0xe815…94d1 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$228 (+14%) realized +$205 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%57W / 87L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$158
14 days+$207
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$165
other 16% −$43
crypto 2% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +29.7% +17.4% 47% 47% +8.2%
≤30d 96 +30.3% +17.9% 42% 41% +4.0%
≤90d 144 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 39% -2.7%
all 144 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 39% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 39% -2.7%
10% -6.6% 38% -12.0%
15% -15.6% 38% -20.5%
20% -23.9% 33% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses57 / 87
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)144 / 151
History coverage48d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 66¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+51%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 61¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$46 +137%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$20 +383%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$36 +349%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$12 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$21 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$15 +60%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$16 +203%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$18 +112%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$20 +396%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $17 +$21 +124%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$5 +71%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 +$115 +1116%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 10 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$21 +206%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$20 +97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 66¢ $15 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $88 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $2 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 28¢ $26 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $10 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 8¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $80 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $10 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $20 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $24 34h
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $20 35h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $25 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 36h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $5 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $50 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 60¢ $30 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $24 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $46 42h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $5 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 16¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $15 43h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.32 · official $90.32 (match) · 266 history records