Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe81b…5db1 sports 72 markets active 9h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$683 (-31%) realized −$680 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$638
7 days−$858
14 days−$844
30 days−$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$866
sports 21% +$170
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -22.8% -30.1% 39% 39% -49.8%
≤30d 60 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -40.1%
≤90d 63 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 48% -38.1%
all 63 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 48% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 48% -38.1%
10% -23.3% 46% -44.0%
15% -30.7% 44% -49.4%
20% -37.5% 37% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage32d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $384 −$381 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$5 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 +$5 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$46 +152%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $296 +$123 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $384 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 21h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $11 21h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $1 21h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $10 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 34h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 34h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $5 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 34h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND France vs. Sene BUY 18¢ $4 34h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $192 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $185 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $23 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $5 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2d
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.79 · official $5.79 (match) · 137 history records