Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe81b…f35a other 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+1%) realized +$298 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%138W / 210L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$909
14 days+$19
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$994
sports 41% +$644
world 3% +$69
crypto 1% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +7.0% -3.2% 43% 34% -10.6%
≤30d 309 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 309 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 33% -6.9%
all 348 -7.3% -16.1% 40% 32% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 32% -7.3%
10% -24.1% 24% -16.2%
15% -31.4% 20% -24.3%
20% -38.2% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$40 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses138 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions2
Markets (closed)348 / 353
History coverage152d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $190 +$9 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $22 −$19 -88%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 −$8 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $196 +$51 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$50 +103%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$17 -68%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $181 +$7 +4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$17 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$29 +115%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$38 +74%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $351 −$350 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $455 −$67 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $392 +$41 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $444 +$74 +17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $303 +$11 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $36 −$7 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $708 −$256 -36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +290%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $388 +$107 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 −$202 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $349 −$242 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $403 +$145 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $705 +$68 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $313 −$3 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$27 -44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$123 -41%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $117 +$46 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,013 −$376 -37%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -11%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 −$14 -70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $907 −$519 -57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $252 +$13 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$24 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $203 +$195 +96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $71 +$96 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $199 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $3 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $22 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $190 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 72¢ $88 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $38 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $27 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $196 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $34 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under $8 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $26 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $70 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $185 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $100 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $81 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.63 · official $14.63 (match) · 1161 history records